CLE @ WAS – Week 5 2024
CLE
WAS
CLE
AWAY
13@34
WAS BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 63%Our line: WAS -4.3
WAS
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.201Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.183Offense EPA / play+0.139
+0.017Defense EPA / play+0.011
37.0%Offense success %48.5%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 21. Off by 16.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +167 | -167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9 SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5 SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
134.0 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
J.Winston2121 yd · 13 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Ford565 yd · 3 TD
N.Chubb332 yd · 3 TD
D.Foreman232 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jeudy90 rec · 1229 yd · 4 TD
E.Moore61 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@WASW17 2022 | CLE 24, WAS 10 | CLE | W |
| WAS@CLEW3 2020 | WAS 20, CLE 34 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 4.3. The market has WAS at -3.0.
The model projects 44.1 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 24, WAS 10 in Week 17 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: CLE -0.201 against WAS +0.128.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
