Raiders vs Broncos – Week 5 2024
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
18@34
DEN BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 18, Denver Broncos 34.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Raiders, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
40.5% (26)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 16. Off by 11.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
| LV@DENW1 2023 | LV 17, DEN 16 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.8. The market has DEN at -3.0.
Denver Broncos won, LV 18, DEN 34. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -3.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 5, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 8.6 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: LV -0.164 against DEN +0.138.
