2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ DEN – Week 5 2024
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
18@34
DEN +16
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 64%Projected margin: 3.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 16. Off by 12.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -155 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
| LV@DENW1 2023 | LV 17, DEN 16 | LV | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES