2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ SF – Week 5 2024
ARI
SF
ARI
AWAY
24@23
ARI +1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 73%Projected margin: 8.4
SF
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
8.4
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but ARI won. Projected margin was 8.4 -- the model overestimated by 9.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -325 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8SEASON PPR
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW4 2023 | ARI 16, SF 35 | SF | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES