Cardinals vs 49ers – Week 5 2024
ARI
SF
ARI
AWAY
24@23
ARI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 24, San Francisco 49ers 23.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 73%Our line: SF -8.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -8.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.011Net EPA / play+0.028
+0.067 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
+0.056 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
47.3% (8)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but ARI won. Projected margin was 8.4, the model overestimated by 9.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 8.4. The market has SF at -7.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 24, SF 23. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -7.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.8 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: ARI +0.011 against SF +0.028.
