2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ ARI – Week 11 2025
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
41@22
SF +19
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 65%Projected margin: -2.7
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 2.7. Actual: 19. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3SEASON PPR
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW4 2023 | ARI 16, SF 35 | SF | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES