Chiefs vs Broncos – Week 11 2025
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
19@22
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 19, Denver Broncos 22.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 5 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 59%Our line: DEN -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
44.5% (14)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 3.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.2. The market has DEN at +3.5.
Denver Broncos won, KC 19, DEN 22. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +3.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 0.8 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: KC +0.055 against DEN +0.138.
