2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ DEN – Week 11 2025
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
19@22
DEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 59%Projected margin: 2.4
DEN
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
2.4
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 2.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +165 | Won · +$1.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW6 2023 | DEN 8, KC 19 | KC | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES