2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ KC – Week 17 2025
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
20@13
DEN +7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 70%Projected margin: -4.6
DEN
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
-4.6
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 4.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW6 2023 | DEN 8, KC 19 | KC | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES