Broncos vs Chiefs – Week 17 2025
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
20@13
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 20, Kansas City Chiefs 13.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Broncos, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: DEN 70%Our line: DEN -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -7.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
44.2% (16)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 7.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs KC
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 7.0. The market has DEN at -13.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 20, KC 13. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -13.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 17, the Denver Broncos were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 8.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against KC +0.055.
