2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ WAS – Week 17 2025
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
30@23
DAL +7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 62%Projected margin: -1.0
DAL
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-1.0
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 7. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.29 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8SEASON PPR
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW12 2023 | WAS 10, DAL 45 | DAL | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES