DAL @ WAS – Week 17 2025
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
30@23
DAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 62%Our line: DAL -4.0
DAL
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.097Offense EPA / play+0.005
+0.167Defense EPA / play+0.142
46.6%Offense success %45.6%
48.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 7. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -500 | +380 |
| Our fair price | -160 | +160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8 SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9 SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW12 2023 | WAS 10, DAL 45 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.0. The market has DAL at -8.5.
The model projects 44.2 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, THU 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 22, DAL 44 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.070 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
