Cowboys vs Commanders – Week 12 2024
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
34@26
DAL BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 34, Washington Commanders 26.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cowboys, 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 69%Our line: WAS -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.109 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.139 (4)
+0.083 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (15)
40.6% (23)Offense success %48.5% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but DAL won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 14.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 6.8. The market has WAS at -10.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 34, WAS 26. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -10.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 12, the Dallas Cowboys were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 1.2 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: DAL -0.192 against WAS +0.128.
