2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ WAS – Week 12 2024
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
34@26
DAL +8
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER B
PICK: WAS
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: WAS 69%Projected margin: 5.1
WAS
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but DAL won. Projected margin was 5.1 -- the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -625 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0SEASON PPR
WAS
J.Daniels
QB
355.8SEASON PPR
T.McLaurin
WR
267.8SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW12 2023 | WAS 10, DAL 45 | DAL | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES