49ers vs Packers – Week 12 2024
SF
GB
SF
AWAY
10@38
GB BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 10, Green Bay Packers 38.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 49ers, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 66%Our line: GB -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.028Net EPA / play+0.146
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
46.1% (11)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 28. Off by 22.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@SFW3 2021 | GB 30, SF 28 | GB | W |
| GB@SFW9 2020 | GB 34, SF 17 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 66% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 5.7. The market has GB at -6.5.
Green Bay Packers won, SF 10, GB 38. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 12, the San Francisco 49ers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.3 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 30, SF 28 in Week 3 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: SF +0.028 against GB +0.146.
