SF @ GB – Week 12 2024
SF
GB
SF
AWAY
10@38
GB BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 66%Our line: GB -5.7
GB
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.7
OUR LINE
-197
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.028Net EPA / play+0.146
+0.069Offense EPA / play+0.079
+0.041Defense EPA / play-0.067
46.1%Offense success %44.9%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 28. Off by 22.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +235 | -290 |
| Our fair price | +197 | -197 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9 SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6 SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy3864 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason789 yd · 3 TD
I.Guerendo420 yd · 4 TD
B.Purdy323 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
G.Kittle78 rec · 1106 yd · 8 TD
J.Jennings77 rec · 975 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@SFW3 2021 | GB 30, SF 28 | GB | W |
| GB@SFW9 2020 | GB 34, SF 17 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 66% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 5.7. The market has GB at -6.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 30, SF 28 in Week 3 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: SF +0.028 against GB +0.146.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
