Buccaneers vs Giants – Week 12 2024
TB
NYG
TB
AWAY
30@7
TB BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, New York Giants 7.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 64%Our line: TB -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.115Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
49.5% (3)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 23. Off by 18.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@TBW11 2021 | NYG 10, TB 30 | TB | W |
| TB@NYGW8 2020 | TB 25, NYG 23 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NYG
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.0. The market has TB at -6.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 30, NYG 7. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NYG 10, TB 30 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against NYG -0.170.
