TB @ NYG – Week 12 2024
TB
NYG
TB
AWAY
30@7
TB BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: TB 64%Our line: TB -5.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-181
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.115Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.130Offense EPA / play-0.107
+0.015Defense EPA / play+0.063
49.5%Offense success %40.5%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 23. Off by 18.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -298 | +240 |
| Our fair price | -181 | +181 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8 SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4 SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield4500 yd · 41 TD · 16 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving1122 yd · 8 TD
R.White613 yd · 3 TD
B.Mayfield378 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
M.Evans74 rec · 1004 yd · 11 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 600 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@TBW11 2021 | NYG 10, TB 30 | TB | W |
| TB@NYGW8 2020 | TB 25, NYG 23 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.0. The market has TB at -6.5.
The model projects 43.3 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NYG 10, TB 30 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against NYG -0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
