2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NYG – Week 12 2024
TB
NYG
TB
AWAY
30@7
TB +23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 64%Projected margin: -2.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 23. Off by 20.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -298 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@TBW11 2021 | NYG 10, TB 30 | TB | W |
| TB@NYGW8 2020 | TB 25, NYG 23 | TB | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES