Buccaneers vs Giants – Week 8 2020
TB
NYG
TB
AWAY
25@23
TB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25, New York Giants 23.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: TB 65%Our line: TB -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.170Net EPA / play-0.086
+0.119 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.056 (27)
-0.051 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (16)
45.9% (15)Offense success %41.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.3. Actual: 2. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@NYGW12 2024 | TB 30, NYG 7 | TB | W |
| NYG@TBW11 2021 | NYG 10, TB 30 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NYG
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 5.3. The market has TB at -13.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 25, NYG 23. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -13.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 8, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 30, NYG 7 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.170 against NYG -0.086.
