IND @ DET – Week 8 2020
IND
DET
IND
AWAY
41@21
IND BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: IND 54%Our line: IND -1.4
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.4
OUR LINE
-118
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.208
+0.079Offense EPA / play-0.005
-0.030Defense EPA / play+0.203
46.6%Offense success %44.3%
45.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 20. Off by 18.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -185 | +165 |
| Our fair price | -118 | +118 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8 SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0 SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor1169 yd · 11 TD
Nyheim Hines380 yd · 3 TD
Jordan Wilkins308 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
Zach Pascal44 rec · 629 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@INDW12 2024 | DET 24, IND 6 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 1.4. The market has IND at -3.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 24, IND 6 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against DET -0.208.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
