Colts vs Lions – Week 8 2020
IND
DET
IND
AWAY
41@21
IND BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 41, Detroit Lions 21.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: IND 54%Our line: IND -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -1.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.208
+0.079 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.005 (22)
-0.030 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.203 (32)
46.6% (10)Offense success %44.3% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 20. Off by 18.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@INDW12 2024 | DET 24, IND 6 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs DET
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 1.4. The market has IND at -3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 41, DET 21. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.6 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 24, IND 6 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against DET -0.208.
