NE @ BUF – Week 8 2020
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
21@24
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 58%Our line: BUF -2.6
BUF
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-136
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.147
-0.004Offense EPA / play+0.164
+0.071Defense EPA / play+0.017
46.1%Offense success %50.2%
48.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +175 | -197 |
| Our fair price | +136 | -136 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NE
Cam Newton
QB
261.0 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
142.5 SEASON PPR
James White
RB
116.6 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
Damiere Byrd47 rec · 604 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.6. The market has BUF at -4.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 35, NE 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: NE -0.076 against BUF +0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
