Patriots vs Bills – Week 8 2020
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
21@24
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 24.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 58%Our line: BUF -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.147
-0.004 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
+0.071 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
46.1% (12)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.6. The market has BUF at -4.0.
Buffalo Bills won, NE 21, BUF 24. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -4.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 8, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 4.5 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: NE -0.076 against BUF +0.147.
