Patriots vs Bills – Week 5 2025
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
23@20
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 23, Buffalo Bills 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 82% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 82%Our line: BUF -12.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -12.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.205Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.158 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
-0.047 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
48.4% (3)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NE won. Projected margin was 12.5, the model overestimated by 15.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 12.5. The market has BUF at -7.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 23, BUF 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 82% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 5, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 2.1 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against BUF +0.152.
