2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ BUF – Week 16 2024
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
21@24
BUF +3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 85%Projected margin: 14.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
14.0
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 14.0. Actual: 3. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
COLD GAME
14°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1100 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
14°F
WIND
2 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NEW7 2023 | BUF 25, NE 29 | BUF | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES