Patriots vs Bills – Week 16 2024
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
21@24
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 24.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: BUF 85%Our line: BUF -13.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -13.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.153Net EPA / play+0.197
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
42.4% (19)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 13.8. Actual: 3. Off by 10.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
COLD GAME
14°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
14°F
WIND
2 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.8. The market has BUF at -14.0.
Buffalo Bills won, NE 21, BUF 24. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -14.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 16, the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 1.4 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: NE -0.153 against BUF +0.197.
