Vikings vs Seahawks – Week 16 2024
MIN
SEA
MIN
AWAY
27@24
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 27, Seattle Seahawks 24.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
45.6% (12)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@SEAW13 2025 | MIN 0, SEA 26 | SEA | W |
| SEA@MINW3 2021 | SEA 17, MIN 30 | SEA | L |
| MIN@SEAW5 2020 | MIN 26, SEA 27 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs SEA
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.7. The market has MIN at -2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 27, SEA 24. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.6 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, MIN 0, SEA 26 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against SEA -0.018.
