2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ LV – Week 16 2024
JAX
LV
JAX
AWAY
14@19
LV +5
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 63%Projected margin: -1.7
JAX
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but LV won. Projected margin was 1.7 -- the model overestimated by 6.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +110 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2SEASON PPR
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LVW9 2025 | JAX 30, LV 29 | JAX | W |
| LV@JAXW9 2022 | LV 20, JAX 27 | LV | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES