Cardinals vs Panthers – Week 16 2024
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
30@36
CAR BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 30, Carolina Panthers 36.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Cardinals, 1 Panthers.
Model confidence: ARI 68%Our line: ARI -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.067 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.053 (23)
+0.056 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.160 (32)
47.3% (8)Offense success %41.3% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CAR
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.4. The market has ARI at -5.5.
Carolina Panthers won, ARI 30, CAR 36. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -5.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 16, the Arizona Cardinals were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CAR 22, ARI 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.011 against CAR -0.213.
