2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ CAR – Week 16 2024
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
30@36
CAR +6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 68%Projected margin: -4.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-4.2
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 4.2 -- the model overestimated by 10.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8SEASON PPR
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES