Buccaneers vs Cowboys – Week 16 2024
TB
DAL
TB
AWAY
24@26
DAL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 26.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: TB 62%Our line: TB -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.115Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
49.5% (3)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but DAL won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW5 2026 | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL | L |
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
| DAL@TBW1 2021 | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DAL
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 4.0. The market has TB at -4.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, TB 24, DAL 26. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -4.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 16, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 1.4 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 24, DAL 16 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against DAL -0.192.
