2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ DAL – Week 16 2024
TB
DAL
TB
AWAY
24@26
DAL +2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 62%Projected margin: -1.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but DAL won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 3.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
| DAL@TBW1 2021 | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES