49ers vs Dolphins – Week 16 2024
SF
MIA
SF
AWAY
17@29
MIA BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 17, Miami Dolphins 29.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 60%Our line: MIA -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.028Net EPA / play-0.017
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
46.1% (11)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 12. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@SFW2 2026 | MIA 13, SF 35 | SF | W |
| MIA@SFW13 2022 | MIA 17, SF 33 | SF | W |
| MIA@SFW5 2020 | MIA 43, SF 17 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.3. The market has MIA at +2.0.
Miami Dolphins won, SF 17, MIA 29. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +2.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, MIA 13, SF 35 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.028 against MIA -0.017.
