2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ MIA – Week 16 2024
SF
MIA
SF
AWAY
17@29
MIA +12
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 60%Projected margin: 1.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
+2.0
SPREAD
1.2
PROJ MARGIN
+133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 12. Off by 10.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +105 | Won · +$1.33 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@SFW13 2022 | MIA 17, SF 33 | SF | W |
| MIA@SFW5 2020 | MIA 43, SF 17 | SF | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES