Dolphins vs 49ers – Week 5 2020
MIA
SF
MIA
AWAY
43@17
MIA BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 43, San Francisco 49ers 17.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.042
+0.007 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.008 (18)
-0.041 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
46.0% (13)Offense success %46.0% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but MIA won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 30.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 34.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@SFW2 2026 | MIA 13, SF 35 | SF | W |
| SF@MIAW16 2024 | SF 17, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
| MIA@SFW13 2022 | MIA 17, SF 33 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.0. The market has SF at -8.5.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 43, SF 17. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -8.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 5, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.8 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, MIA 13, SF 35 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against SF +0.042.
