Colts vs Browns – Week 5 2020
IND
CLE
IND
AWAY
23@32
CLE BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 23, Cleveland Browns 32.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: IND 51%Our line: IND -0.5
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -0.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.109Net EPA / play+0.011
+0.079 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (10)
-0.030 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (23)
46.6% (10)Offense success %46.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but CLE won. Projected margin was 0.5, the model overestimated by 9.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@INDW7 2023 | CLE 39, IND 38 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CLE
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 0.5. The market has IND at +1.0.
Cleveland Browns won, IND 23, CLE 32. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +1.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 1.9 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 39, IND 38 in Week 7 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against CLE +0.011.
