2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ CLE – Week 5 2020
IND
CLE
IND
AWAY
23@32
CLE +9
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 51%Projected margin: -1.7
IND
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but CLE won. Projected margin was 1.7 -- the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -101 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2SEASON PPR
CLE
Baker Mayfield
QB
248.6SEASON PPR
Kareem Hunt
RB
218.5SEASON PPR
Nick Chubb
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@INDW7 2023 | CLE 39, IND 38 | CLE | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES