CAR @ ATL – Week 5 2020
CAR
ATL
CAR
AWAY
23@16
CAR BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 53%Our line: ATL -1.1
ATL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.1
OUR LINE
-114
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.073Net EPA / play-0.042
+0.004Offense EPA / play+0.021
+0.077Defense EPA / play+0.063
45.0%Offense success %43.2%
47.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but CAR won. Projected margin was 1.1, the model overestimated by 8.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +125 | -139 |
| Our fair price | +114 | -114 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Mike Davis642 yd · 6 TD
Teddy Bridgewater279 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore66 rec · 1193 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen95 rec · 1096 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ATLW11 2025 | CAR 30, ATL 27 | CAR | W |
| ATL@CARW3 2025 | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW18 2024 | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CARW6 2024 | ATL 38, CAR 20 | ATL | W |
| ATL@CARW15 2023 | ATL 7, CAR 9 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.1. The market has ATL at -2.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 53.5.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 30, ATL 27 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: CAR -0.073 against ATL -0.042.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
