2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ ATL – Week 5 2020
CAR
ATL
CAR
AWAY
23@16
CAR +7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 53%Projected margin: 0.1
ATL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but CAR won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -139 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1SEASON PPR
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ATLW11 2025 | CAR 30, ATL 27 | CAR | W |
| ATL@CARW3 2025 | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW18 2024 | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CARW6 2024 | ATL 38, CAR 20 | ATL | W |
| ATL@CARW15 2023 | ATL 7, CAR 9 | ATL | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES