Panthers vs Falcons – Week 5 2020
CAR
ATL
CAR
AWAY
23@16
CAR BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 23, Atlanta Falcons 16.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 53%Our line: ATL -1.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -1.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.073Net EPA / play-0.042
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
45.0% (19)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but CAR won. Projected margin was 1.1, the model overestimated by 8.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ATLW2 2026 | CAR 34, ATL 3 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW11 2025 | CAR 30, ATL 27 | CAR | W |
| ATL@CARW3 2025 | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW18 2024 | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CARW6 2024 | ATL 38, CAR 20 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.1. The market has ATL at -2.5.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 23, ATL 16. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -2.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 7.0 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 34, ATL 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: CAR -0.073 against ATL -0.042.
