LAC @ NO – Week 5 2020
LAC
NO
LAC
AWAY
27@30
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 66%Our line: NO -5.6
NO
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.6
OUR LINE
-195
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.027Offense EPA / play+0.093
+0.026Defense EPA / play-0.084
43.2%Offense success %47.6%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 5.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +288 | -339 |
| Our fair price | +195 | -195 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8 SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Keenan Allen100 rec · 992 yd · 8 TD
Mike Williams48 rec · 756 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NO by 5.6. The market has NO at -7.0.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, NO 8, LAC 26 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: LAC +0.001 against NO +0.177.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
