2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ NO – Week 5 2020
LAC
NO
LAC
AWAY
27@30
NO +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 66%Projected margin: 6.7
NO
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 3. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -339 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
377.8SEASON PPR
Drew Brees
QB
209.5SEASON PPR
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@LACW8 2024 | NO 8, LAC 26 | LAC | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES