Chargers vs Saints – Week 5 2020
LAC
NO
LAC
AWAY
27@30
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 27, New Orleans Saints 30.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 66%Our line: NO -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.027 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.093 (9)
+0.026 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.084 (4)
43.2% (24)Offense success %47.6% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 5.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NO by 5.6. The market has NO at -7.0.
New Orleans Saints won, LAC 27, NO 30. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -7.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 2.8 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, NO 8, LAC 26 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: LAC +0.001 against NO +0.177.
