2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ HOU – Week 5 2020
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
14@30
HOU +16
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 53%Projected margin: 0.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
0.0
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 16. Off by 16.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -281 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1SEASON PPR
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES