Rams vs Commanders – Week 5 2020
LA
WAS
LA
AWAY
30@10
LA BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 30, Washington Commanders 10.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: LA 66%Our line: LA -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.015 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
-0.177 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
44.5% (20)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 20. Off by 14.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@LAW15 2023 | WAS 20, LA 28 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs WAS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project LA by 5.6. The market has LA at -7.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 30, WAS 10. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 2.6 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, WAS 20, LA 28 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.162 against WAS +0.023.
