PHI @ PIT – Week 5 2020
PHI
PIT
PHI
AWAY
29@38
PIT BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 55%Our line: PIT -1.6
PIT
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.6
OUR LINE
-121
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.089Offense EPA / play+0.010
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.118
40.6%Offense success %43.2%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 9. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +312 | -372 |
| Our fair price | +121 | -121 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-22%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Miles Sanders867 yd · 6 TD
Boston Scott374 yd · 1 TD
Jalen Hurts354 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
Dallas Goedert46 rec · 524 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@PHIW15 2024 | PIT 13, PHI 27 | PHI | W |
| PIT@PHIW8 2022 | PIT 13, PHI 35 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 1.6. The market has PIT at -7.5.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PIT 13, PHI 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PHI -0.107 against PIT +0.128.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
