Eagles vs Steelers – Week 5 2020
PHI
PIT
PHI
AWAY
29@38
PIT BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 29, Pittsburgh Steelers 38.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Eagles, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 55%Our line: PIT -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -1.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.089 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
+0.018 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
40.6% (30)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 9. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@PHIW15 2024 | PIT 13, PHI 27 | PHI | W |
| PIT@PHIW8 2022 | PIT 13, PHI 35 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 1.6. The market has PIT at -7.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PHI 29, PIT 38. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PIT 13, PHI 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PHI -0.107 against PIT +0.128.
