Steelers vs Eagles – Week 15 2024
PIT
PHI
PIT
AWAY
13@27
PHI BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 13, Philadelphia Eagles 27.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 66%Our line: PHI -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.212
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
40.4% (27)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 14. Off by 8.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@PHIW8 2022 | PIT 13, PHI 35 | PHI | W |
| PHI@PITW5 2020 | PHI 29, PIT 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.7. The market has PHI at -5.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PIT 13, PHI 27. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -5.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 2.9 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PIT 13, PHI 35 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PIT -0.016 against PHI +0.212.
