Bills vs Lions – Week 15 2024
BUF
DET
BUF
AWAY
48@42
BUF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 48, Detroit Lions 42.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 63%Our line: DET -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.197Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
47.5% (7)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but BUF won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BUFW2 2026 | DET 31, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@DETW12 2022 | BUF 28, DET 25 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.5. The market has DET at -2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 48, DET 42. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 8.4 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, DET 31, BUF 41 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: BUF +0.197 against DET +0.232.
