2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ DET – Week 15 2024
BUF
DET
BUF
AWAY
48@42
BUF +6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 63%Projected margin: 3.3
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
3.3
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but BUF won. Projected margin was 3.3 -- the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5SEASON PPR
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@DETW12 2022 | BUF 28, DET 25 | BUF | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES