2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ ARI – Week 15 2024
NE
ARI
NE
AWAY
17@30
ARI +13
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 69%Projected margin: 5.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 13. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -258 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7SEASON PPR
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@ARIW14 2022 | NE 27, ARI 13 | NE | W |
| ARI@NEW12 2020 | ARI 17, NE 20 | NE | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES