Patriots vs Cardinals – Week 15 2024
NE
ARI
NE
AWAY
17@30
ARI BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 17, Arizona Cardinals 30.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 69%Our line: ARI -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -6.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.153Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.067 (11)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.056 (26)
42.4% (19)Offense success %47.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 13. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@ARIW14 2022 | NE 27, ARI 13 | NE | W |
| ARI@NEW12 2020 | ARI 17, NE 20 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.8. The market has ARI at -6.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, NE 17, ARI 30. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -6.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 15, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.8 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 27, ARI 13 in Week 14 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: NE -0.153 against ARI +0.011.
