NE @ ARI – Week 14 2022
NE
ARI
NE
AWAY
27@13
NE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: NE 60%Our line: NE -3.6
NE
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.6
OUR LINE
-152
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.104
-0.054Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.089Defense EPA / play+0.016
40.9%Offense success %40.6%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 14. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -125 | +113 |
| Our fair price | -152 | +152 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.75
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3 SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2997 yd · 14 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Rhamondre Stevenson1040 yd · 5 TD
Damien Harris462 yd · 3 TD
Mac Jones102 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers67 rec · 804 yd · 6 TD
DeVante Parker31 rec · 539 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@ARIW15 2024 | NE 17, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
| ARI@NEW12 2020 | ARI 17, NE 20 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.6. The market has NE at -2.0.
The model projects 44.0 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, NE 17, ARI 30 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against ARI -0.104.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
