Patriots vs Cardinals – Week 14 2022
NE
ARI
NE
AWAY
27@13
NE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 27, Arizona Cardinals 13.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Patriots, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: NE 60%Our line: NE -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.104
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
40.9% (24)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 14. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@ARIW15 2024 | NE 17, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
| ARI@NEW12 2020 | ARI 17, NE 20 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs ARI
Our model takes New England Patriots at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.6. The market has NE at -2.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 27, ARI 13. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 14, the New England Patriots were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 0.0 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, NE 17, ARI 30 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against ARI -0.104.
