HOU @ DAL – Week 14 2022
HOU
DAL
HOU
AWAY
23@27
DAL BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 85%Our line: DAL -14.2
DAL
PICK SIDE
-17.0
MARKET SPREAD
-14.2
OUR LINE
-583
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.189Offense EPA / play+0.012
+0.003Defense EPA / play-0.097
36.9%Offense success %44.6%
45.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 14.2. Actual: 4. Off by 10.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +918 | -1365 |
| Our fair price | +583 | -583 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -17.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.09
OUR NUMBER
85%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
90%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5 SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
Chris Moore48 rec · 548 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DALW11 2024 | HOU 34, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DAL by 14.2. The market has DAL at -17.0.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, DAL 10 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: HOU -0.192 against DAL +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
