Texans vs Cowboys – Week 14 2022
HOU
DAL
HOU
AWAY
23@27
DAL BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 23, Dallas Cowboys 27.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 85%Our line: DAL -14.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -17.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -14.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (11)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.097 (2)
36.9% (32)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 14.2. Actual: 4. Off by 10.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@HOUW4 2026 | DAL 34, HOU 30 | HOU | L |
| HOU@DALW11 2024 | HOU 34, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DAL by 14.2. The market has DAL at -17.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, HOU 23, DAL 27. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -17.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 17.0 points.
In Week 14, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 34, HOU 30 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: HOU -0.192 against DAL +0.109.
