2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ DAL – Week 14 2022
HOU
DAL
HOU
AWAY
23@27
DAL +4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER S
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 85%Projected margin: 14.0
DAL
PICK SIDE
-17.0
SPREAD
14.0
PROJ MARGIN
-1155
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 14.0. Actual: 4. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -17.0 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -1155 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1365 | Won · +$0.09 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6SEASON PPR
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
301.6SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
248.8SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DALW11 2024 | HOU 34, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES