2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ TEN – Week 14 2022
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
36@22
JAX +14
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 63%Projected margin: 3.7
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but JAX won. Projected margin was 3.7 -- the model overestimated by 17.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -169 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES