Ravens vs Steelers – Week 14 2022
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
16@14
BAL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 16, Pittsburgh Steelers 14.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 58%Our line: BAL -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.019Net EPA / play-0.012
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
45.3% (11)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 2.8. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs PIT
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.8. The market has BAL at +1.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 16, PIT 14. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at +1.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 14, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 7.4 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.019 against PIT -0.012.
