Steelers vs Ravens – Week 16 2024
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
17@34
BAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Baltimore Ravens 34.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.269
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
40.4% (27)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 17. Off by 11.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.8. The market has BAL at -7.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, PIT 17, BAL 34. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 16, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 2.1 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: PIT -0.016 against BAL +0.269.
