2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ BAL – Week 16 2024
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
17@34
BAL +17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: 3.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
3.9
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 17. Off by 13.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -345 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES