Ravens vs Steelers – Week 5 2023
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
10@17
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Ravens, 5 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 57%Our line: PIT -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.215Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.066 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
-0.149 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
47.4% (3)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.4. Actual: 7. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.4. The market has PIT at +4.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, BAL 10, PIT 17. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +4.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 5, the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 7.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.215 against PIT -0.013.
