Chiefs vs Vikings – Week 5 2023
KC
MIN
KC
AWAY
27@20
KC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Minnesota Vikings 20.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: KC 71%Our line: KC -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -7.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.107Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.021 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
-0.086 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
43.7% (12)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 7.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs MIN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 7.6. The market has KC at -3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 27, MIN 20. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 6.2 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against MIN -0.023.
