KC @ MIN – Week 5 2023
KC
MIN
KC
AWAY
27@20
KC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: KC 71%Our line: KC -7.6
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.6
OUR LINE
-249
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.107Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.021Offense EPA / play-0.041
-0.086Defense EPA / play-0.018
43.7%Offense success %42.4%
39.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 7.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -180 | +150 |
| Our fair price | -249 | +249 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2 SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4 SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
213.9 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
Patrick Mahomes4183 yd · 27 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Isiah Pacheco935 yd · 7 TD
Patrick Mahomes389 yd · 0 TD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire223 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Kelce93 rec · 984 yd · 5 TD
Rashee Rice79 rec · 938 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 7.6. The market has KC at -3.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against MIN -0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
