Jets vs Broncos – Week 5 2023
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
31@21
NYJ BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 31, Denver Broncos 21.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 59%Our line: DEN -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.252 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
-0.119 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
35.0% (32)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.1. The market has DEN at -2.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 31, DEN 21. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -2.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 3.7 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Denver Broncos: NYJ -0.133 against DEN -0.077.
