2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ DEN – Week 5 2023
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
31@21
NYJ +10
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 59%Projected margin: 0.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1SEASON PPR
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES