NYJ @ DEN – Week 5 2023
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
31@21
NYJ BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 59%Our line: DEN -3.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.252Offense EPA / play-0.058
-0.119Defense EPA / play+0.019
35.0%Offense success %42.1%
37.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5 SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall994 yd · 5 TD
Dalvin Cook214 yd · 0 TD
Zach Wilson211 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
Tyler Conklin61 rec · 621 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.1. The market has DEN at -2.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Denver Broncos: NYJ -0.133 against DEN -0.077.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
