DEN @ NYJ – Week 4 2024
DEN
NYJ
DEN
AWAY
10@9
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: NYJ 61%Our line: NYJ -3.7
NYJ
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.020Offense EPA / play-0.013
-0.118Defense EPA / play+0.024
42.7%Offense success %42.6%
39.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYJ but DEN won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +330 | -425 |
| Our fair price | +154 | -154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYJ -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for NYJ. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2 SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3 SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3775 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams513 yd · 4 TD
J.McLaughlin496 yd · 1 TD
B.Nix430 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton81 rec · 1081 yd · 8 TD
M.Mims39 rec · 503 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Jets at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYJ by 3.7. The market has NYJ at -7.5.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against NYJ -0.037.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
