2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ NYJ – Week 4 2024
DEN
NYJ
DEN
AWAY
10@9
DEN +1
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NYJ
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NYJ 61%Projected margin: 1.5
NYJ
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYJ but DEN won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 2.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | NYJ market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -425 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES