2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ NYG – Week 4 2024
DAL
NYG
DAL
AWAY
20@15
DAL +5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 66%Projected margin: -3.6
DAL
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-3.6
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 3.6. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -250 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0SEASON PPR
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW1 2023 | DAL 40, NYG 0 | DAL | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES