Cowboys vs Giants – Week 4 2024
DAL
NYG
DAL
AWAY
20@15
DAL BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 15.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: DAL 66%Our line: DAL -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -5.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.170
-0.109 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
+0.083 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
40.6% (23)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 5.6. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW1 2026 | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL | L |
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NYG
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 5.6. The market has DAL at -5.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 20, NYG 15. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -5.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 4, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.4 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 20, NYG 28 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Giants: DAL -0.192 against NYG -0.170.
