Giants vs Cowboys – Week 10 2023
NYG
DAL
NYG
AWAY
17@49
DAL BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 17, Dallas Cowboys 49.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants.
Model confidence: DAL 80%Our line: DAL -11.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -17.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -11.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.220
-0.174 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
-0.019 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
37.9% (30)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 11.4. Actual: 32. Off by 20.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
133.2 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW1 2026 | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL | L |
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 11.4. The market has DAL at -17.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, NYG 17, DAL 49. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -17.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 17.5 points.
In Week 10, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 7.2 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 20, NYG 28 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: NYG -0.155 against DAL +0.220.
