NYG @ DAL – Week 10 2023
NYG
DAL
NYG
AWAY
17@49
DAL BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 80%Our line: DAL -11.4
DAL
PICK SIDE
-17.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.4
OUR LINE
-403
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.220
-0.174Offense EPA / play+0.106
-0.019Defense EPA / play-0.114
37.9%Offense success %47.4%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 11.4. Actual: 32. Off by 20.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +1100 | -2100 |
| Our fair price | +403 | -403 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -17.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.08
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
92%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Tyrod Taylor1341 yd · 5 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley962 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones206 yd · 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor197 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
Darren Waller52 rec · 552 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW1 2023 | DAL 40, NYG 0 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 11.4. The market has DAL at -17.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 17, NYG 34 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: NYG -0.155 against DAL +0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
