2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ JAX – Week 10 2023
SF
JAX
SF
AWAY
34@3
SF +31
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 61%Projected margin: 2.3
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
2.3
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but SF won. Projected margin was 2.3 -- the model overestimated by 33.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +142 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
249.2SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@SFW4 2025 | JAX 26, SF 21 | SF | L |
| SF@JAXW11 2021 | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES