49ers vs Jaguars – Week 10 2023
SF
JAX
SF
AWAY
34@3
SF BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 3.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.034
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
51.1% (1)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but SF won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 34.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@SFW4 2025 | JAX 26, SF 21 | SF | L |
| SF@JAXW11 2021 | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.9. The market has JAX at +3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 34, JAX 3. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +3.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 0.1 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 26, SF 21 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against JAX -0.034.
