SF @ JAX – Week 10 2023
SF
JAX
SF
AWAY
34@3
SF BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.034
+0.174Offense EPA / play-0.070
-0.082Defense EPA / play-0.036
51.1%Offense success %42.1%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but SF won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 34.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -170 | +142 |
| Our fair price | +160 | -160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
40%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3 SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
249.2 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Brock Purdy4280 yd · 31 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Christian McCaffrey1459 yd · 14 TD
Elijah Mitchell281 yd · 2 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr.225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk75 rec · 1342 yd · 7 TD
George Kittle65 rec · 1020 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@SFW4 2025 | JAX 26, SF 21 | SF | L |
| SF@JAXW11 2021 | SF 30, JAX 10 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.9. The market has JAX at +3.0.
The model projects 44.6 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 26, SF 21 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against JAX -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
