Lions vs Chargers – Week 10 2023
DET
LAC
DET
AWAY
41@38
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 41, Los Angeles Chargers 38.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 60%Our line: DET -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.093Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
46.1% (6)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 3.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs LAC
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 3.4. The market has DET at -2.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 41, LAC 38. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 4.1 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against LAC -0.088.
