Packers vs Steelers – Week 10 2023
GB
PIT
GB
AWAY
19@23
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 19, Pittsburgh Steelers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 66%Our line: PIT -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -5.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
44.6% (9)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 5.7. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@PITW8 2025 | GB 35, PIT 25 | GB | W |
| PIT@GBW4 2021 | PIT 17, GB 27 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.7. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, GB 19, PIT 23. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 7.2 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 35, PIT 25 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against PIT -0.013.
