GB @ PIT – Week 10 2023
GB
PIT
GB
AWAY
19@23
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 66%Our line: PIT -5.7
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.7
OUR LINE
-198
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.064Offense EPA / play-0.073
+0.008Defense EPA / play-0.060
44.6%Offense success %42.0%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 5.7. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -166 |
| Our fair price | +198 | -198 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1 SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2 SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
174.4 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
Jordan Love4159 yd · 32 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Aaron Jones656 yd · 2 TD
AJ Dillon613 yd · 2 TD
Jordan Love247 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Jayden Reed64 rec · 793 yd · 8 TD
Romeo Doubs59 rec · 674 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@PITW8 2025 | GB 35, PIT 25 | GB | W |
| PIT@GBW4 2021 | PIT 17, GB 27 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.7. The market has PIT at -3.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 35, PIT 25 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against PIT -0.013.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
