Saints vs Vikings – Week 10 2023
NO
MIN
NO
AWAY
19@27
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 19, Minnesota Vikings 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
42.1% (15)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 8. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NOW5 2026 | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW4 2022 | MIN 28, NO 25 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW16 2020 | MIN 33, NO 52 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.4. The market has MIN at +3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, NO 19, MIN 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 4.1 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 23, NO 13 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against MIN -0.023.
