ATL @ ARI – Week 10 2023
ATL
ARI
ATL
AWAY
23@25
ARI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 68%Our line: ATL -6.1
ATL
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-208
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.157
-0.099Offense EPA / play-0.071
-0.059Defense EPA / play+0.085
41.1%Offense success %40.5%
39.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but ARI won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 8.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -208 | +208 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+13%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3 SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Bijan Robinson976 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Allgeier683 yd · 4 TD
Desmond Ridder193 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Drake London69 rec · 905 yd · 2 TD
Kyle Pitts53 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@ARIW16 2025 | ATL 26, ARI 19 | ATL | W |
| ARI@ATLW17 2022 | ARI 19, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 6.1. The market has ATL at -2.0.
The model projects 43.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 26, ARI 19 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.040 against ARI -0.157.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
