Falcons vs Cardinals – Week 10 2023
ATL
ARI
ATL
AWAY
23@25
ARI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 23, Arizona Cardinals 25.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ATL 68%Our line: ATL -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.157
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
41.1% (20)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but ARI won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 8.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@ARIW16 2025 | ATL 26, ARI 19 | ATL | W |
| ARI@ATLW17 2022 | ARI 19, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs ARI
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 6.1. The market has ATL at -2.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ATL 23, ARI 25. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -2.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 10, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.4, 0.1 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 26, ARI 19 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.040 against ARI -0.157.
