2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ ATL – Week 17 2022
ARI
ATL
ARI
AWAY
19@20
ATL +1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 62%Projected margin: 1.8
ATL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 1.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -279 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
156.0SEASON PPR
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@ARIW16 2025 | ATL 26, ARI 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@ARIW10 2023 | ATL 23, ARI 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES