Cardinals vs Falcons – Week 17 2022
ARI
ATL
ARI
AWAY
19@20
ATL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 19, Atlanta Falcons 20.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals, 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 62%Our line: ATL -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.104Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.088 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
+0.016 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
40.6% (26)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 1. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@ARIW16 2025 | ATL 26, ARI 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@ARIW10 2023 | ATL 23, ARI 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.0. The market has ATL at -7.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ARI 19, ATL 20. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -7.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 17, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 4.9 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 26, ARI 19 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Atlanta Falcons: ARI -0.104 against ATL -0.075.
