NO @ PHI – Week 17 2022
NO
PHI
NO
AWAY
20@10
NO BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 71%Our line: PHI -7.4
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-241
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.172
-0.038Offense EPA / play+0.107
-0.056Defense EPA / play-0.064
45.7%Offense success %48.3%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NO won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 17.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +198 | -225 |
| Our fair price | +241 | -241 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2 SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara897 yd · 2 TD
Mark Ingram233 yd · 1 TD
Rashid Shaheed57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave72 rec · 1042 yd · 4 TD
Juwan Johnson42 rec · 508 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NOW3 2024 | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW11 2021 | NO 29, PHI 40 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW14 2020 | NO 21, PHI 24 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.4. The market has PHI at -5.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 15, NO 12 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: NO +0.018 against PHI +0.172.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
