2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ PHI – Week 17 2022
NO
PHI
NO
AWAY
20@10
NO +10
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 71%Projected margin: 5.8
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
5.8
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NO won. Projected margin was 5.8 -- the model overestimated by 15.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -225 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
378.0SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
299.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NOW3 2024 | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW11 2021 | NO 29, PHI 40 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW14 2020 | NO 21, PHI 24 | NO | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES