Saints vs Eagles – Week 17 2022
NO
PHI
NO
AWAY
20@10
NO BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 20, Philadelphia Eagles 10.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 3 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 71%Our line: PHI -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -7.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.172
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.107 (3)
-0.056 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.064 (5)
45.7% (8)Offense success %48.3% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NO won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 17.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NOW3 2024 | PHI 15, NO 12 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW11 2021 | NO 29, PHI 40 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW14 2020 | NO 21, PHI 24 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.4. The market has PHI at -5.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 20, PHI 10. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -5.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 17, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 4.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 15, NO 12 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: NO +0.018 against PHI +0.172.
