Vikings vs Packers – Week 17 2022
MIN
GB
MIN
AWAY
17@41
GB BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 17, Green Bay Packers 41.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: GB 58%Our line: GB -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
44.9% (13)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 24. Off by 21.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW1 2026 | GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 2.8. The market has GB at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, MIN 17, GB 41. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 0.3 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, GB 22, MIN 39 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against GB -0.034.
