2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ KC – Week 17 2022
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
24@27
KC +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 86%Projected margin: 13.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
13.7
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 13.7. Actual: 3. Off by 10.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -711 | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
159.4SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES